Fresno State — 2026 schedule & results record 4-3 · model's picks 5-1 so far
Proj rating -1.1 · SOS -1.2 · Mean wins 5.0 · Picked 4-7 · Vegas 7.5
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Line / ATS | Model | Win prob | Pick | My bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fri 09/04 | USC | away | L 0–39 | +22 ✗ | -19.7 | 12% | L ✓ | |
| 2 | Sat 09/12 | Sacramento State | home | W 49–3 | -18 ✓ | — | — | — | |
| 3 | Sat 09/19 | San José State | away | W 26–10 | -4 ✓ | +11.5 | 76% | W ✓ | |
| 4 | Sat 09/26 | Rice | home | W 38–24 | -12.25 ✓ | +12.4 | 77% | W ✓ | |
| 5 | Sat 10/03 | Washington State | away | W 26–6 | +2.25 ✓ | -10.9 | 27% | L ✗ |
Washington State -1.5 · LOSS -30 |
| 6 | Sat 10/10 | Boise State | home | L 31–38 | +9 ✓ | -1.6 | 46% | L ✓ | |
| 7 | Sat 10/17 | San Diego State | away | L 23–26 | -6.75 ✗ | -10.2 | 27% | L ✓ | |
| 9 | Sat 10/31 | Oregon State | home | — | +5.5 | +6.9 | 65% | W | |
| 10 | Sat 11/07 | Utah State | away | — | — | -1.0 | 48% | L | |
| 11 | Sat 11/14 | Texas State | away | — | — | -4.9 | 39% | L | |
| 12 | Sat 11/21 | Colorado State | home | — | — | +12.5 | 78% | W |
Picked counts every game the model favors as a win. Mean wins is the average over 10,000 simulated seasons — a team favored 60/40 in five games wins about three of them, not five, which is why Picked runs higher than Mean wins for good teams (and lower for bad ones). Compare Mean wins to Vegas; use this page to see where the wins come from.